Few investors understand the stunning odds that are likely dooming their returns. The system is rigged against investors and in favor of those who “manage” their money. Active mutual fund families, brokers and insurance companies are the big winners in this process. Investors barely scrape by. Here’s some historical data for your consideration. It may…
When I say “risk” and you say “risk,” chances are high we don’t mean the same thing. The finance industry defines risk as something measurable. It is variability within a set of known limits. You may have heard it referred to as standard deviation or even volatility. Ultimately, it represents how much an investment wiggles…
Since the development of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) about 50 years ago, academic researchers have documented several hundred “anomalies” that generate a significant positive alpha. There are now so many that professor John Cochrane referred to them as the “factor zoo.” There are certainly large incentives to find these anomalies, both for academics…
An overwhelming body of evidence clearly demonstrates that past performance isn’t prologue, which presents a problem for investors who believe active management is the winning strategy. Without the ability to rely on past performance as a predictor, there is really no way to identify ahead of time the few active managers that will go on…
Calm water makes a lifeboat drill much easier. We aren’t fighting the waves or the fear we feel during an emergency. Still, if the worst happens, and the drill becomes reality, at least we’ve rehearsed. We’ll know exactly what we are supposed do. With the markets relatively calm, now is the perfect time for an…
Diversification is often referred to as the only “free lunch” in investing because, when done properly, it allows investors to improve risk-adjusted returns. This principle applies not just to diversification across U.S. stocks, but to investing globally. The choice to purchase securities internationally helps mitigate the economic and political risks of investing in only a…
A reader asked me to comment on a recent Forbes article titled “Active Versus Passive Management: Which Is Better?” The author, contributor Peter Andersen, asks this question while observing that, in 2014, the vast majority of active fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 Index. However, he also notes that there have been periods “where active…
rom 1926 through 2014, the default premium (the annual return on long-term, investment-grade corporate bonds minus the annual return on long-term Treasurys) has been just 0.22 percent. Such a small premium has led many observers, including me, to conclude that investors willing to accept higher levels of portfolio risk in exchange for higher expected returns…
“I can’t believe you see it that way!” Just last week, I said this to my wife in the middle of a discussion (O.K., a fight) about money. We were experiencing something many of you have probably also faced. We needed to make a very important financial decision about how much of an emergency fund…
With the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up nearly 10% year-to-date through May 1, I think many people are wondering whether this area is the most attractive for investors seeking international exposure. Alas, history has taught us time and again that simply chasing the financial version of a “shiny new object” (recent performance, for example) is…
Value is the phenomenon in which securities that sell at low prices relative to fundamental metrics (such as earnings, book value, cash flow, dividends and sales) on average outperform securities that sell at high relative prices. Specifically, the value premium is the annual average return realized by going long cheap assets and short expensive ones….
Earlier this week, we began discussing some of the more pervasive and enduring facts and fictions surrounding the value premium. But it’s important to understand that the value premium—a phenomenon in which securities that sell at low prices relative to fundamental metrics outperform on average securities that sell at high relative prices—is an empirical fact….
“I can’t believe you see it that way!” Just last week, I said this to my wife in the middle of a discussion (O.K., a fight) about money. We were experiencing something many of you have probably also faced. We needed to make a very important financial decision about how much of an emergency fund…
Permitting fiduciaries to accept payments from vendors will likely make the proposed rule ineffective. Washington bureaucrats seem to have a way of making everything complicated. Have you perused the tax code lately? According to The Washington Times, it has 4 million words, making it seven times the length of the novel “War and Peace.” On…
Most predictions are utter nonsense. They’re made by self-styled “gurus” who are really emperors with no clothes. If they are right, it’s due to luck and not skill (although they are quick to claim credit). Warren Buffett’s view of those who pretend to have the ability to predict the future is spot-on. He famously stated:…